Antenatal prediction models for short- and medium-term outcomes in preterm infants
preterm birth; pregnancy complications; prediction model; antenatal counseling; neonatal outcomes
Introduction: In extremely and very preterm infants, predicting individual risks for adverse outcomes antenatally is challenging but necessary for risk-stratified perinatal management and parents' participation in decision-making about treatment. Our aim was to develop and validate prediction models for short-term (neonatal period) and medium-term (3 years of age) outcomes based on antenatal maternal and fetal factors alone. Material(s) and Method(s): A population-based study was conducted on 31 157 neonates weighing <=1500 g and born between 22 and 31 weeks of gestation registered in the Neonatal Research Network of Japan during 2006-2015. Short-term outcomes were assessed in 31 157 infants and medium-term outcomes were assessed in 13 751 infants among the 31 157 infants. The clinical data were randomly divided into training and validation data sets in a ratio of 2:1. The prediction models were developed by factors selected using stepwise logistic regression from 12 antenatal maternal and fetal factors with the training data set. The number of factors incorporated into the model varied from 3 to 10, on the basis of each outcome. To evaluate predictive performance, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was calculated for each outcome with the validation data set. Result(s): Among short-term outcomes, AUROCs for in-hospital death, chronic lung disease, intraventricular hemorrhage (grade III or IV) and periventricular leukomalacia were 0.85 (95% CI 0.83-0.86), 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.81), 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.80), and 0.58 (95% CI 0.55-0.61), respectively. Among medium-term outcomes, AUROCs for cerebral palsy and developmental quotient of <70 at 3 years of age were 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.69) and 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.74), respectively. Conclusion(s): Although the predictive performance of these models varied for each outcome, their discriminative ability for in-hospital death, chronic lung disease, and intraventricular hemorrhage (grade III or IV) was relatively good. We provided a bedside prediction tool for calculating the likelihood of various infant complications for clinical use. To develop these prediction models would be valuable in each country, and these risk assessment tools could facilitate risk-stratified perinatal management and parents' shared understanding of their infants' subsequent risks. Copyright © 2021 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology (NFOG). Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Ushida T; Moriyama Y; Nakatochi M; Kobayashi Y; Imai K; Nakano-Kobayashi T; Nakamura N; Hayakawa M; Kajiyama H; Kotani T
Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica
2021
Article information provided for research and reference use only. PedPalASCNET does not hold any rights over the resource listed here. All rights are retained by the journal listed under publisher and/or the creator(s).
<a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/aogs.14136" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">10.1111/aogs.14136</a>
Perinatal Decision Making For Preterm Infants With Congenital Heart Disease: Determinable Risk Factors For Mortality.
Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems; Birth-weight Infants; Necrotizing Enterocolitis; Defects; Pediatrics; Vascular Surgery
Antenatal Counseling; Congenital Heart Disease; Premature; Trial Of Therapy
For premature infants with congenital heart disease (CHD), it may be unclear when the burdens of treatment outweigh potential benefits. Parents may thus have to choose between comfort care at birth and medical stabilization until surgical repair is feasible. Better defined outcome data, including risk factors for mortality, are needed to counsel expectant parents who are considering intensive care for premature infants with CHD. We sought to evaluate outcomes in this population to inform expectant parents considering intensive versus palliative care at birth. We performed a retrospective cohort study of infants born <34 weeks who received intensive care with critical or moderately severe CHD predicted to require surgery in the neonatal period or the first 6 months of life. 46 % of 54 infants survived. Among non-survivors, 74 % died prior to surgery (median age 24 days). Of the infants that underwent surgery, 75 % survived. Survival was lower among infants <32 weeks gestational age (GA) (p = 0.013), with birth weight (BW) <1500 g (p = 0.011), or with extra-cardiac anomalies (ECA) (p = 0.015). GA and ECA remained significant risk factors for mortality in multiple logistic regression analysis. In summary, GA < 32 weeks, BW < 1500 g, and ECA are determinable prenatally and were significant risk factors for mortality. The majority of infants who survived to cardiac intervention survived neonatal hospitalization, whereas most of the infants who died did so prior to surgery. For some expectant parents, this early declaration of mortality may support a trial of intensive care while avoiding burdensome interventions.
Lynema S; Fifer C; Laventhal N
Pediatric Cardiology.
2016
Article information provided for research and reference use only. PedPalASCNET does not hold any rights over the resource listed here. All rights are retained by the journal listed under publisher and/or the creator(s).
DOI: 10.1007/s00246-016-1374-y